# Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets are available through TRADE using your existing RabbitMQ connection. No separate feed, queue, or endpoint is required.

Content is sourced from Kalshi and covers a range of non-sports categories. Prediction Market fixtures follow the Outright League message structure — the prediction category acts as the competition container, and each prediction question is represented as a fixture.

***

## Provider

| Field              | Value           |
| ------------------ | --------------- |
| **Provider**       | Kalshi          |
| **Status**         | Live            |
| **Delivery**       | TRADE RabbitMQ  |
| **Message family** | Outright League |

***

## Categories

The following prediction categories are available for subscription:

* Politics
* Economics
* Crypto
* Companies
* Financials
* Science & Technology
* Climate & Weather
* Health
* Entertainment
* Social
* Mentions

***

## Message Mapping

Prediction Markets use the Outright League message family. The mapping to standard TRADE concepts is as follows:

| TRADE concept            | Prediction Markets mapping    |
| ------------------------ | ----------------------------- |
| **Sport**                | Predictions                   |
| **Competition / League** | Prediction category           |
| **Fixture**              | One prediction question       |
| **FixtureName**          | Full prediction question text |
| **Participants**         | Not used                      |
| **Livescore**            | Not applicable                |

***

## Market Types

Two market types are supported for Prediction Markets.

### Predictions Yes/No (Market ID 3455)

A single Yes/No pair against the fixture question. Used when the fixture resolves to one binary outcome.

| Parameter     | Value    |
| ------------- | -------- |
| **Market ID** | 3455     |
| **Bets**      | Yes / No |
| **Line**      | Not used |

**Example:** FixtureName: "Will the Fed raise interest rates before June 2025?" → Bets: Yes | No

### Multiple Selection Predictions Yes/No (Market ID 3456)

One Yes/No pair per selectable option. Used when the fixture contains multiple possible outcomes.

| Parameter         | Value                                 |
| ----------------- | ------------------------------------- |
| **Market ID**     | 3456                                  |
| **Bets**          | Yes / No per line                     |
| **Line**          | One selectable option per line        |
| **ParticipantId** | Selection identifier where applicable |

**Example:** FixtureName: "Who will be the next Fed Chair?"

| Selection     | Bet 1 | Bet 2 |
| ------------- | ----- | ----- |
| Donald Trump  | Yes   | No    |
| Jerome Powell | Yes   | No    |

***

## Message Flow

1. Subscribe through the existing TRADE integration flow.
2. TRADE distributes the Outright League Fixture message for each prediction question.
3. TRADE distributes Outright League Market updates as prices change.
4. TRADE distributes the Outright League Settlement message when the market is resolved.

***

## Odds

Prediction Market odds are normalized from provider stake values:

**Odds = 1 / Stake (cents)**

Odds are delivered already normalized — no additional conversion is required.

***

## Settlement

Settlement is confirmed manually by LSports after provider confirmation. Do not assume settlement is sent immediately after a market closes. Drive settlement logic from the Outright League Settlement message.

***

## Rendering

**Market ID 3455** — Render a single Yes / No pair against the fixture question.

**Market ID 3456** — Render one Yes / No pair per selection line. Use `Line` as the display label and `ParticipantId` as the logical identifier where provided.

***

## Integration Notes

**No new connection required** — Prediction Markets are delivered through the existing TRADE RabbitMQ infrastructure. No new queue, vhost, or endpoint is needed.

**Livescore does not apply** — Prediction Markets have no live score phase. Do not expect in-play score progression or scoreboard-driven state changes.

**Reconnection** — After reconnecting, request a snapshot before resuming normal consumption.

***

## Related Pages

* [Outright League Fixture](/u/trade/integration/message-structure/outright-league-fixture.md)
* [Outright League Market](/u/trade/integration/message-structure/outright-league-market.md)
* [Outright League Settlement](/u/trade/integration/message-structure/outright-league-settlement.md)
* [RabbitMQ Connection](/u/trade/integration/rmq-connection.md)
* [Snapshot API](/u/trade/integration/apis/snapshot.md)


---

# Agent Instructions: Querying This Documentation

If you need additional information that is not directly available in this page, you can query the documentation dynamically by asking a question.

Perform an HTTP GET request on the current page URL with the `ask` query parameter:

```
GET https://docs.lsports.eu/u/trade/prediction-markets.md?ask=<question>
```

The question should be specific, self-contained, and written in natural language.
The response will contain a direct answer to the question and relevant excerpts and sources from the documentation.

Use this mechanism when the answer is not explicitly present in the current page, you need clarification or additional context, or you want to retrieve related documentation sections.